Research
Partial Identification in Models Generated by Economic Choice, with an Application to Texas Direct
[Abstract] This paper studies models in which individuals’ outcomes depend on their economic choices. In these models, the outcome resulting from a given treatment is observed only for individuals who choose to participate in that treatment through a rational decision-making process. I focus on settings where data limitations, such as limited or censored instrumental variables, preclude researchers from fully determining how the choices determining their inclusion in the observed sample were made. Rather than relying on strict assumptions to overcome this challenge, the tools from random set theory are used to characterize the sharp identified set of parameters implied by the available data and develop a corresponding estimation procedure. The proposed procedures provide a simple tool for studying counterfactual choice-specific outcomes for the population in a way that reflects the available information. They are used to evaluate the effects of the Texas Direct, a major initiative aimed at facilitating community college transfer. Using student-level administrative data from Texas, I find that while completing the Texas Direct curricula components can reduce credit loss after transfer, additional pre-transfer credit accumulation conditional on their completion can reduce the likelihood of bachelor's degree attainment.
Publications
Variation in English learners' programmatic experiences and postsecondary trajectories
Language and postsecondary trajectories: How "ever-English learner" status predicts college outcomes
Working Papers
Two-sample two-stage least squares estimation of nonparametric models
[Abstract] This paper investigates nonparametric instrumental variable estimation in a data combination context, in which one dataset contains the outcome and instrumental variables, and the other contains the explanatory and instrumental variables. We develop an estimator for structural functions, derive its uniform convergence rate, and introduce a two-sample bootstrap method for uniform inference. The proposed estimator is equipped with procedures for adaptive estimation and for constructing honest, adaptive uniform confidence bands, thereby enhancing its practical value. Our simulations demonstrate that the proposed procedure enables estimation and inference from two incomplete datasets that are comparable to its full-variable benchmark. We apply our findings to examine the relationship between healthcare expenditures and household budgets among the elderly population in the U.S., combining data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and the Consumer Expenditure Survey. We find that universal Medicare coverage does not eliminate meaningful variation in healthcare consumption according to household characteristics and spending capacity among the U.S. elderly population.
Developmental education reform and student outcomes at California community colleges: The role of transfer-level course enrollment
[Abstract] California's Assembly Bill 705 was intended to increase student success by maximizing access to transfer-level math and English coursework in the state's community colleges. These transfer-level courses are broadly comparable to college-level courses in other states, though California's placement reform mandated that most students have direct access to transferable (rather than associate degree-applicable) courses. Although prior research illustrates that the reform increased access, few studies have examined transfer-level course enrollment during the initial rollout — when colleges retained discretion over placement — and how that enrollment predicts students' short- and long-term outcomes. Using statewide administrative data and inverse probability weighted regression adjustment, we examined which students enrolled in transfer-level courses and whether such enrollment predicts academic progress up to 4 years later. Our findings offer insights into placement reform implementation, the role of early access to transfer-level coursework in shaping subsequent academic momentum, and the implications of uneven access during discretionary implementation.
Expanding access, advancing outcomes: Evidence from California's developmental education reform
[Abstract] California's AB705 reformed developmental education in the nation's largest community college system. The policy required colleges to maximize the probability that students complete transfer-level coursework within one year and to use high school academic measures for placement. Yet, AB705's impacts on college completion and transfer remain unclear. Using student-level statewide administrative data, we examine its effects on course completion, degree attainment, and vertical transfer. We find that following AB705, students with the lowest academic readiness — the policy's target — experienced greater gains in transfer-level credit accumulation, credential attainment, and university transfer within four years than their better-prepared peers.
Single-Crossing, Information Ordering, and Identification in Choice under Uncertainty
[Abstract] We are interested in testing whether economic agents make rational choices that allow them to maximize their returns when payoff realizations are contingent upon an uncertain state of the world, using data consisting of observed choices and payoff realizations that take values in a finite, ordered set. Applying a theoretically grounded model of choice under uncertainty, we show how the assumption of a Bayesian decision maker with single crossing utility, which we label “Monotone Bayesian Expected Utility decision-maker (MBEU-DM), provides identifying restrictions on the distribution of utility payoffs, as well as the conditions under which it yields testable implications of the hypothesis. We illustrate our findings by testing the optimality of course-load decisions among community college students in Texas using a statewide, population-level longitudinal dataset.